I considered this talk to be the gem of OSCON 2014 (O’Reilly Open Source Conference). I think his insights into backwards causality (67% of all successful generals bombard hills) and crossing value chains with market maturity are brilliant.
Here’s Simon’s OSCON 2014 keynote …
Simon Wardley OSCON 2014 Keynote: "Introduction to Value Chain Mapping
Here’s a more extended keynote from the 2013 Alfresco Summit …
Alfresco Summit 2013: Keynote Speaker Simon Wardley: Situation Normal Everything Must Change